This page was last edited on 27 October 2017, at 14:25. Energy use patterns are analyzed for grid paper pdf 14 inc mini-grids in Kenya and compared to pre-installation predictions of consumption. This study found an average absolute error of prediction of 426 Wh on an average daily customer consumption of 113 Wh arising mainly from time-of-use prediction errors.
Over-sizing of the mini-grid to account for potential error would require a four-fold increase in main components to achieve similar reliability levels. Data-driven methods using comparable data from other mini-grids was shown to substantially reduce error to an absolute average of 60. 6 Wh, but are dependent on the availability of these data sets. Individual and whole mini-grid consumption were classified as prototypical hourly consumption profiles.
Hourly consumption distribution parameters are provided. Mini-grids for rural electrification in developing countries are growing in popularity but are not yet widely deployed. A key barrier of mini-grid proliferation is the uncertainty in predicting customer electricity consumption, which adds financial risk. Energy-use surveys deployed in the pre-feasibility stage that capture present and aspirational consumption are intended to reduce this uncertainty. However, the general reliability and accuracy of these surveys has not been demonstrated.
This research compares survey-predicted electrical energy use to actual measured consumption of customers of eight mini-grids in rural Kenya. A follow-up audit compares the aspirational inventory of appliances to the realized inventory. Hourly load profiles were constructed to provide insight into potential causes of error and to suggest how the data provided in this work can be used in computer-aided mini-grid design programs. Further documentation is available here. This article has multiple issues.