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In this paper, we quantify the dependence of rating transition probabilities on the industry and domicile of the obligor, and on the stage of the business cycle. Employing ordered probit models, we identify the incremental impact of these factors. Our approach gives a clearer picture of which conditioning factors are important than comparing transition matrices estimated from different sub-samples. Check if you have access through your login credentials or your institution. Opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, not necessarily those of the Bank of England.
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